ВИСОКОТЕХНОЛОГІЧНИЙ РОЗВИТОК ШВЕЦІЇ: ОЦІНКА ВПЛИВУ ЦИКЛІЧНИХ КОМПОНЕНТ
C51, O32, F17
HIGH-TECH DEVELOPMENT IN SWEDEN: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CYCLICAL COMPONENTS
https://doi.org/10.36994/2707-4110-2025-14-41-19
Oleksandr Bielov, Ph.D., Open International University
of Human Development "Ukraine",
ORCID: 0000-0002-7910-8174
Mykhailo Gridzhuk, graduate student Open International University
of Human Development "Ukraine"[1]
Abstract.
This study explores the role of cyclic components in the dynamics of Sweden's high-tech exports, presenting a detailed analysis of their structure and impact. The research highlights the significance of the high-tech sector in Sweden, which ranks 24th–25th globally in high-tech export volumes and contributes significantly to the global market, with a share fluctuating between 0.57% and 0.81% over the past five years. Sweden's technological success is rooted in its robust education system, access to venture capital, and government policies fostering innovation.
The study employs a novel methodological framework combining traditional linear and parabolic functions with cyclic components. This approach enables the identification and quantification of cyclical characteristics, including period, phase, intensity (amplitude), and their influence on overall dynamics. The findings reveal the presence of economic cycles in Sweden's high-tech export dynamics with periods of 4.0 and 8.7 years. The weighted impact of these cyclic components on export dynamics is significant, ranging from -9% to +7.5%, with a more substantial negative influence exceeding the positive by 1.5%.
Moreover, the analysis shows that Sweden’s high-tech export dynamics are less affected by cyclic components compared to other countries, reflecting the stabilizing influence of government policies. The study also examines the cyclicality of high-tech exports as a share of total manufactured exports and GDP, finding moderate fluctuations in these metrics and linking them to market demand and product life cycles.
The results underscore the importance of incorporating cyclic components into high-tech export strategies to optimize economic outcomes. Future research will focus on identifying specific factors with cyclical influences and aligning them with economic policies to enhance the resilience of the high-tech sector.
Keywords: competitiveness, scientific and technical development, economic cycle, high-tech export.
ВИСОКОТЕХНОЛОГІЧНИЙ РОЗВИТОК ШВЕЦІЇ: ОЦІНКА ВПЛИВУ ЦИКЛІЧНИХ КОМПОНЕНТ
Бєлов Олександр, к.е.н., ЗВО «Університет «Україна»
Гриджук Михайло, аспірант, ЗВО «Університет «Україна»
Анотація. У цьому дослідженні досліджується роль циклічних компонентів у динаміці високотехнологічного експорту Швеції, представлено детальний аналіз їх структури та впливу. Дослідження підкреслює важливість сектору високих технологій у Швеції, який займає 24–25 місце у світі за обсягами експорту високотехнологічних товарів і робить значний внесок у світовий ринок, частка якого коливається від 0,57% до 0,81% протягом останніх п’яти років. Технологічний успіх Швеції ґрунтується на її потужній системі освіти, доступі до венчурного капіталу та державній політиці, що сприяє інноваціям.
У дослідженні використовується нова методологічна основа, яка поєднує традиційні лінійні та параболічні функції з циклічними компонентами. Такий підхід дозволяє ідентифікувати та кількісно визначити циклічні характеристики, включаючи період, фазу, інтенсивність (амплітуду), та їх вплив на загальну динаміку. Отримані результати показують наявність економічних циклів у динаміці високотехнологічного експорту Швеції з періодами 4,0 та 8,7 років. Зважений вплив цих циклічних складових на динаміку експорту є суттєвим і коливається від -9% до +7,5%, при цьому більш істотний негативний вплив перевищує позитивний на 1,5%.
Крім того, аналіз показує, що на динаміку високотехнологічного експорту Швеції меншою мірою впливають циклічні компоненти порівняно з іншими країнами, що відображає стабілізуючий вплив урядової політики. Дослідження також розглядає циклічність високотехнологічного експорту як частку загального експорту промислової продукції та ВВП, виявляючи помірні коливання в цих показниках і пов’язуючи їх із ринковим попитом і життєвими циклами продукції.
Результати підкреслюють важливість включення циклічних компонентів у високотехнологічні експортні стратегії для оптимізації економічних результатів. Майбутні дослідження будуть зосереджені на визначенні конкретних факторів із циклічним впливом та узгодженні їх з економічною політикою для підвищення стійкості сектору високих технологій.
Ключові слова: конкурентоспроможність, науково-технічний розвиток, економічний цикл, високотехнологічний експорт.
Introduction. In recent years of war, Ukraine has suffered significant losses. The recovery of the national economy requires the active adoption of best practices from developed countries, with a particular focus on fostering the high-tech sector.
The challenges of studying the high-tech sector, as the most knowledge-intensive segment of the economy, have been addressed by domestic scholars such as V. Heyets (Heyets, 2023), I. Bazhal (Bazhal, 2015), and S. Boublyk and I. Bulkin (Boublyk et al., 2020), as well as by foreign researchers including T. Hatzichronoglou (Hatzichronoglou, 1997) and N. Lee (Lee, 2024).
A fundamental aspect of research on the high-tech sector is the relationship between scientific and technological progress and economic growth. Bazhal (2015) examines the institutional mechanisms necessary for effective innovation development, emphasizing the “triple helix” model, which highlights the interaction between government, universities, and businesses. His study underscores the importance of state-supported research ecosystems in ensuring sustainable high-tech growth. Similarly, Hatzichronoglou (1997) proposes a classification of industries based on technological intensity, providing a framework for assessing high-tech industries and their contribution to the national economy.
Another significant perspective is offered by Lee (2024), who analyzes various models of economic prosperity driven by innovation. He contrasts the concentrated wealth of Silicon Valley with more equitable approaches found in Sweden, Switzerland, and Taiwan. His work highlights the role of institutional structures in ensuring that technological progress leads to widespread economic benefits rather than exacerbating inequality. This body of research provides a theoretical foundation for understanding how high-tech industries can be structured to maximize their economic impact.
The role of public policy in shaping high-tech industries has also been widely studied. Heyets (2023) analyzes economic transformations in post-Soviet and European economies, focusing on the challenges of technological dependence and industrial restructuring. His work emphasizes the importance of policy interventions to mitigate market risks and strengthen high-tech industrial sectors.
Boublyk et al. (2020) further explore the regulatory framework necessary to foster a knowledge-based economy. Their research evaluates the "science-centric" orientation of national legislation and its relationship with public spending on research and development. They emphasize the need for a coherent and long-term government strategy in science and technology policy, aligned with European Union regulations, to enhance innovation capacity.
Our research will focus on Sweden as a case study. Sweden is a highly developed economy country within the European Union and has established itself as a prominent European technology hub. It has produced globally recognized companies such as Spotify, Skype, Klarna, as well as Minecraft and Candy Crush (Lee, 2024), despite high taxes and extensive social security programs, which are often perceived in the academic community as factors that inhibit entrepreneurial activity.
Sweden’s high-tech sector includes industries such as aerospace, electronics and electrical machinery, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (Tuck, 2022), advanced robotics and mobility technologies, additive manufacturing, and the digitalization of industrial production (Sweden Advanced Manufacturing, 2021). The components of Sweden’s innovation ecosystem and its leading technology companies are examined in various studies (The Technology Sector in Sweden - A Brief Overview, 2024; Top 10 Tech Companies to Work for in Sweden in 2024, 2024). Additionally, the country’s modern advancements in digital technologies have been analyzed separately (Sokolnicki, 2022).
Over the past five years (2019–2023), Sweden has ranked 24th–25th among more than 200 countries in terms of high-tech exports. Its share in the global high-tech export market has ranged from 0.57% to 0.81%, which represents a significant contribution. In 2023, high-tech exports accounted for 17.64% of Sweden's total manufactured exports, while in 2020, the technology sector as a whole made up more than 6% of the country’s total exports. This underscores the importance of Sweden’s high-tech industries - particularly aerospace, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and data services -as key drivers of national exports.
The development of Sweden’s high-tech industry has been examined by various scholars, including A. Shikhli et al. (2024), E. Boffa and A. Maffei (Boffa & Maffei, 2024), L. Aaboen et al. (2006), M. Ekdahl et al. (2024), and others.
The phenomenon of Sweden emerging as a leading center of high-tech innovation in Europe has been analyzed in several key studies. Aaboen et al. (2006) examine corporate governance structures in Swedish high-tech firms, demonstrating that strong banking ties and institutional financing play a crucial role in supporting small high-tech enterprises. Their study highlights the significance of financial structures in sustaining high-tech business models.
A. Shikhli et al. (2024) examine Sweden’s role in international high-tech cooperation, particularly in aeronautical technology. Their study applies the triple helix model to analyze partnerships between government agencies, academia, and industry, demonstrating how international collaboration fosters innovation and facilitates knowledge transfer.
E. Boffa and A. Maffei (2024) investigate the impact of digital transformation on Swedish manufacturing firms, showing that an innovative business model is essential for integrating new technologies into production processes. Their study underscores the need for continuous adaptation of business strategies to maintain competitiveness in the global high-tech market. Although much of the literature focuses on innovation policies and structural characteristics, relatively few studies directly address the cyclical nature of high-tech development. However, existing research provides indirect insights into this phenomenon. N. Lee (2024) emphasizes the long-term stability of Sweden’s innovation ecosystem, suggesting that the country’s high-tech sector benefits from sustained institutional support despite short-term fluctuations.
Ekdahl et al. (2024) argue that industrial cycles in Sweden are significant and influenced by environmental and sustainability policies, indicating that technological growth is shaped by broader economic and regulatory trends. Similarly, Shikhli et al. (2024) highlight the role of international cooperation in mitigating cyclical downturns by ensuring continued investment in research and development.
A broader macroeconomic perspective is offered by Heyets (2023), who compares Sweden’s technological trajectory with that of other European economies, highlighting cyclical fluctuations in high-tech export performance. These findings suggest that while Sweden’s high-tech sector is not immune to economic cycles, its strong institutional framework helps stabilize fluctuations more effectively than in other countries.
Thus, the question of assessing the impact of cyclical components on the dynamics of high-tech exports remains an open question. We propose using an original methodology that integrates traditional linear and parabolic functions with a cyclical component. This approach will allow us to determine key characteristics of fluctuations in high-tech export dynamics, including period, phase, and intensity (amplitude), as well as assess the overall influence of these fluctuations on the dynamics as a whole.
Aim and method. The objective of this study is to determine the role of the cyclical component in the dynamics of high-tech product exports. Specifically, to analyze the structure of the dynamics of high-tech product exports, namely, to highlight the cyclical growth component in these dynamics, to calculate the share of the cyclical component's influence on the dynamics of high-tech product exports, and also to consider how it changes if high-tech exports are considered as a share of all manufactured exports and as a share of GDP. Additionally, a comparison is made with the overall structure of the country’s GDP dynamics.
To solve the tasks set, the method of correlation-regression analysis incorporating a cyclical component is applied (Belov, 2023; Makarenko & Bielov, 2023) using the following formula:
(1)
where, у – the studied indicator (one of the five mentioned above);
– linear component of the dynamics of the studied indicator;
– nonlinear component;
– cyclic component, or in other words, the sum of the 1st and 2nd harmonics;
a0, a1 … a8 – model parameters.
For further details on the justification of this model and the economic interpretation of its indicators, refer to the sources cited.
Results.
Overview of the state of technological development in Sweden
Neil Lee, in his book Innovation for the Masses: How to Share the Benefits of a High-Tech Economy, provides an in-depth analysis of Sweden’s distinctive approach to balancing a comprehensive welfare state with a dynamic and innovative high-tech sector (Lee, 2024). The Swedish model exemplifies a hybrid economic structure that integrates a competitive capitalist market with a strong welfare state and a culture of disruptive innovation. Frequently referenced as a hallmark of the Scandinavian model of capitalism, Sweden’s approach illustrates the compatibility of expansive welfare systems with a dynamic, growth-oriented economy.
Rather than being perceived as an economic burden, Sweden’s high levels of welfare spending are conceptualized as a form of social investment aimed at enhancing human capital. This is achieved through improvements in education, skills development, and policies designed to encourage broad labor market participation. In the late 20th century, Sweden implemented significant economic reforms, including capital market deregulation, the removal of restrictions on foreign ownership, the privatization of state monopolies, and substantial reductions in corporate and income tax rates. These market-oriented adjustments introduced greater economic flexibility and competitiveness while preserving the core principles of the welfare state, which was restructured to align with a changing economic environment.
Despite these reforms, which have led to increased income inequality, Sweden remains one of the world’s most equitable societies. The country’s high-tech sector, particularly concentrated in Stockholm, thrives due to a supportive ecosystem that includes advanced education, access to venture capital, and government initiatives fostering innovation and internationalization.
Neil Lee (2024) also examines criticisms and challenges associated with the Swedish model, including concerns about rising inequality, the long-term sustainability of the welfare state in the context of high levels of immigration, and potential declines in educational quality. However, Sweden’s ability to sustain a thriving high-tech entrepreneurial environment within a welfare state demonstrates a symbiotic relationship between these elements. This coexistence is believed to contribute significantly to both economic dynamism and social cohesion.
Selection of initial data. The modeling will be conducted using the following indicators: three absolute indicators—high-technology exports, gross domestic product (GDP), and manufactured exports—all of which were converted into constant 2010 prices to allow for a meaningful comparison over the 17-year study period. Additionally, two relative indicators will be used: (1) the technological intensity of manufacturing exports, calculated as the share of high-technology exports in manufactured exports (%), and (2) the technological intensity of the national economy, measured as the share of high-technology exports in GDP (%). These indicators reflect the level of technological advancement in production and the economy as a whole. The study period covers the years 2007 to 2023, as data on high-tech exports for Sweden have been available only since 2007. However, the model itself was built using data from 2007 to 2020, while the last three years (2021–2023) were used as control points. The model parameters were estimated using the CurveExpert 1.38 software package, which is specifically designed for curve fitting and data analysis.
The initial dataset is presented in Table 1.
Table 1. Dynamics of high-tech export indicators for Sweden
|
Year |
High-technology exports (constant 2010 billion US$) |
High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports) |
High-technology exports (% of GDP) |
GDP (constant 2010 billion US$) |
Manufactured exports (constant 2010 billion US$) |
|
2007 |
22,8938 |
16,8057 |
4,4658 |
512,6448 |
136,2260 |
|
2008 |
24,7242 |
17,2486 |
4,5805 |
539,7646 |
143,3403 |
|
2009 |
18,8745 |
18,7733 |
4,2598 |
443,0851 |
100,5393 |
|
2010 |
22,9064 |
19,4115 |
4,6200 |
495,8126 |
118,0045 |
|
2011 |
25,0874 |
18,6982 |
4,4993 |
557,5895 |
134,1704 |
|
2012 |
21,1646 |
17,9838 |
4,0128 |
527,4232 |
117,6869 |
|
2013 |
20,5817 |
18,0254 |
3,7290 |
551,9437 |
114,1818 |
|
2014 |
19,8897 |
17,8775 |
3,6614 |
543,2274 |
111,2559 |
|
2015 |
17,5291 |
18,1291 |
3,7450 |
468,0662 |
96,6902 |
|
2016 |
16,9769 |
17,8376 |
3,6264 |
468,1527 |
95,1748 |
|
2017 |
15,2110 |
15,1103 |
3,1622 |
481,0305 |
100,6658 |
|
2018 |
14,9875 |
14,1643 |
3,0927 |
484,6103 |
105,8118 |
|
2019 |
14,8599 |
14,5058 |
3,2633 |
455,3587 |
102,4410 |
|
2020 |
14,9204 |
15,1360 |
3,2412 |
460,3351 |
98,5759 |
|
2021 |
14,9155 |
13,9348 |
2,9659 |
502,9029 |
107,0375 |
|
2022 |
17,3880 |
17,2567 |
3,9879 |
436,0190 |
100,7609 |
|
2023 |
18,0168 |
17,6403 |
4,2397 |
424,9560 |
|